South Africa inflation expectations dip before rate decision

South African inflation expectations for the next two years declined, signalling progress in the central bank’s efforts to rein them in before its policy meeting later this month. Average inflation expectations two years ahead — which the bank’s monetary policy committee uses to inform its decision-making — fell to 4.9% in the second quarter from 5.2% previously, according to a survey released on Friday by the Stellenbosch-based Bureau for Economic Research. All social groups including analysts, businesspeople, and labour officials lowered their inflation forecasts for the entire three-year horizon BER surveys, it said. “On average, they now anticipate inflation of 5.3% in 2024, 5% in 2025, and 4.9% in 2026,” it said. “Their five-year inflation forecast fell below 5% to 4.9% for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021.” The drop will help ease concerns expressed by the MPC at its last meeting that inflation expectations remain above the 4.5% midpoint of the bank’s target range, where it prefers to anchor them. The reading, coupled with easing inflation pressures, may pave the way for interest rates to be lowered later this year.